Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.828836 0.964932 1.115913 1.295773 1.504174 1.738034 2.020398
2025-01-26 0.612806 0.795968 1.021724 1.320220 1.704430 2.182334 2.822186
2025-02-02 0.520985 0.731034 1.009853 1.406551 1.956224 2.690971 3.748311
2025-02-09 0.446475 0.667253 0.978568 1.448750 2.140457 3.120636 4.616069
2025-02-16 0.385525 0.608572 0.940001 1.467124 2.283819 3.500902 5.453770
2025-02-23 0.334074 0.553873 0.896160 1.466329 2.391550 3.833736 6.254134
2025-03-02 0.290380 0.503574 0.850144 1.452411 2.471916 4.127574 7.022436
2025-03-09 0.257344 0.465272 0.816995 1.452628 2.571474 4.458525 7.885019
2025-03-16 0.221415 0.416394 0.758831 1.400985 2.573696 4.623322 8.479705
2025-03-23 0.212493 0.414413 0.781532 1.493829 2.839487 5.269709 9.994076
2025-03-30 0.186516 0.376844 0.734731 1.452476 2.853765 5.466102 10.707850
2025-04-06 0.163472 0.341668 0.687713 1.404038 2.847224 5.620506 11.355925
2025-04-13 0.143530 0.310452 0.645335 1.361094 2.849645 5.798936 12.087018
2025-04-20 0.132896 0.297129 0.637137 1.386628 2.993739 6.273070 13.472779
2025-04-27 0.129333 0.298377 0.658921 1.477236 3.283403 7.072845 15.625953
2025-05-04 0.121958 0.290114 0.659327 1.521525 3.478916 7.698304 17.481718
2025-05-11 0.113348 0.277789 0.649181 1.540810 3.621142 8.224863 19.181797
2025-05-18 0.104224 0.262939 0.631366 1.539976 3.716950 8.658776 20.721838
2025-05-25 0.095170 0.246988 0.608962 1.525369 3.778551 9.021756 22.139615
2025-06-01 0.087970 0.234653 0.593567 1.525596 3.875268 9.475660 23.824713
2025-06-08 0.078458 0.215062 0.558034 1.471393 3.831874 9.593294 24.707198
2025-06-15 0.077813 0.218743 0.581102 1.568838 4.180746 10.697192 28.167833
2025-06-22 0.070235 0.202632 0.551482 1.525436 4.162258 10.890558 29.336338